Marine & Coastal Impacts Likely Wednesday and Wednesday Night from Tropical Depression One. The storm is likely to become a Tropical Storm later today.
Synopsis & Forecast Confidence:
Tropical Depression One was about 170 miles SE of Flagler Beach early this morning. Conditions are favorable for this depression to develop into a Tropical Storm later today and then track north and northeast offshore the northeast Florida and southeast Georgia coast Wednesday night. Forecast models have come into good agreement with this storm strengthening to Tropical Storm strength as it moves northward while paralleling the southeast Atlantic coast through late Thursday.
Local Impacts & Timing:
Based on the latest forecast, the greatest impact from this system will likely be over the adjacent Atlantic waters and along the immediate coastline Wednesday and Wednesday night, with conditions improving Thursday as the low tracks farther NE away from the region. A tropical storm watch was issued this morning for the offshore Atlantic coastal waters (20-60 NM east of the Altamaha River southward to 20-60 NM east of Flagler Beach). This watch means that Tropical Storm conditions are possible over these waters within 48 hours.
NE winds will likely increase to Tropical Storm strength Wednesday and Wednesday night over the offshore waters (20-60 NM offshore). Winds will increase up to 35 knots offshore with gusts up to 50 knots possible Wed through Wed night. Seas will build up to 7 to 9 feet offshore. Mariners are encouraged to continue to closely monitor this system.
As onshore winds increase through midweek and swells build, the chance of dangerous rip currents along the coast will also increase. Today there is a moderate risk of rip currents, with a high risk of rip currents expected on Wednesday. Breezy ENE winds will near 15-20 mph today and Wednesday with higher gusts.
Thunderstorm/Rainfall Outlook: Coast: Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to begin to move onshore later today, edging their way northward up the Atlantic coast tonight through late Wednesday. Bands of showers and isolated thunderstorms will move onshore through Wednesday night, with locally heavy rainfall possible. Rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches are possible generally south of St Augusine thorugh Thursday, with locally higher amounts. Gusty winds in squalls may reach up to 40 mph.
Inland: Scattered mainly afternoon and evening thunderstorms are expected both today and Wednesday.